Bradley Stephen Shaw – Medium

Bradley Stephen Shaw

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Python in Plain English

A Cautionary Tale: Why You Might Want to Calibrate Your GBM Models

A real-world example of some of the dangers lurking below the surface of a “good” GBM model.

5d ago

A Cautionary Tale: Why You Might Want to Calibrate Your GBM Models

5d ago

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Hello, hello!

A guide to all of my rants and ramblings.

Mar 21, 2024

Hello, hello!

Mar 21, 2024

Published in
TDS Archive

How Reliable Are Your Time Series Forecasts, Really?

How cross-validation, visualisation, and statistical hypothesis testing combine to reveal the optimal forecasting horizon

Apr 5, 2024

How Reliable Are Your Time Series Forecasts, Really?

Apr 5, 2024

Published in
Python in Plain English

Time series residuals: gold in them thar hills

How model crumbs provide more insight than you might think

Mar 15, 2024

Time series residuals: gold in them thar hills

Mar 15, 2024

Published in
TDS Archive

False Prophet: Lightning Strikes Twice

Insights from incorporating external weather data into a time series regression inspired by Meta’s Prophet

Mar 1, 2024

False Prophet: Lightning Strikes Twice

Mar 1, 2024

Published in
TDS Archive

Hybrid Models for Time Series Regression

Using multiple model forms to capture and forecast the components of complex time series

Jan 13, 2024

Hybrid Models for Time Series Regression

Jan 13, 2024

Published in
TDS Archive

False Prophet: Comparing a Regression Model to Meta’s Prophet

Can my Frankenstein of a time series regression model — inspired by Prophet — compete with the real deal?

Nov 25, 2023

False Prophet: Comparing a Regression Model to Meta’s Prophet

Nov 25, 2023

Published in
TDS Archive

False Prophet: a Homemade Time Series Regression Model

Borrowing ideas from Meta’s Prophet to build a powerful time series regression model

Oct 31, 2023

False Prophet: a Homemade Time Series Regression Model

Oct 31, 2023

Published in
TDS Archive

False Prophet: Feature Engineering for a Homemade Time Series Regression

Building on ideas from Meta’s Prophet package to create powerful features for time series machine learning models

Oct 13, 2023

False Prophet: Feature Engineering for a Homemade Time Series Regression

Oct 13, 2023

Published in
Python in Plain English

On Times Series Cross-Validation

Maximising the utility of your time series data with smart subdivision.

Jun 26, 2023

On Times Series Cross-Validation

Jun 26, 2023

Bradley Stephen Shaw

Bradley Stephen Shaw

A pricing actuary, writing about interesting intersections of actuarial science and data science | LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradley-shaw-f

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